Empirical Models for Forecasting Global Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surface using Sunshine Hour and Temperature data over Ikeja, Lagos State

Ilori, B.Y. and Alabi, N. O. and Ogun, C. A and Awofodu, J.O (2016) Empirical Models for Forecasting Global Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surface using Sunshine Hour and Temperature data over Ikeja, Lagos State. In: 39th Nigerian Statistical Association (NSA) Annual Conference. Nigerian Statistical Association, 2016, Nigeria.

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Abstract

The measured data of global solar radiation on horizontal surfaces sunshine hours and temperature for Ikeja with latitude 6.390N, longitude 3.230E and altitude of 39.35 meters, during the period of (1990 � 2010) are analyzed. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were employed with scatterplot smoothers such as cubic smoothing splines and nearest neighbours to establish non-linear relationships that exist between solar radiation and the two random covariates. Generalized cross-validation re-sampling technique was employed in determining the effective degrees of freedom and the window size or span for smooth spline and local regression additive models respectively. Models accuracy was compared using the residual deviance for the GAMs. Composite GAM was selected through a nested analysis of deviance on four postulated models. R programming language packages such as �splines�, �gam�, �ggplot2�, �boot� and �lattice� amongst others were employed throughout the analysis. The selected model is given as Where, is the predicted solar radiation, is the calculated extraterrestrial solar radiation, Ks is the sunshine ratio and ∆T is the temperature difference (maximum minus minimum temperature). The developed model could be employed in predicting global solar radiation of a location that has the same geographical parameters as Ikeja, Lagos State, Nigeria.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects:	Q Science > Q Science (General) Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions:	Faculty of Engineering, Science and Mathematics > School of Mathematics
Depositing User:	Mr Taiwo Egbeyemi
Date Deposited:	09 Jun 2020 16:17
Last Modified:	09 Jun 2020 16:17
URI:	http://eprints.federalpolyilaro.edu.ng/id/eprint/390

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