ARIMA AND ARIMAX IN THE MODELLING OF COVID-19 MORTALITY IN NIGERIA

AJIBODE, I. A and Adeboye, Nurain Olawale ARIMA AND ARIMAX IN THE MODELLING OF COVID-19 MORTALITY IN NIGERIA. Journal of Business and Educational Policies. pp. 1-25. ISSN 0794-3210 12

Text ARIMA AND ARIMAX MODELLING OF COVID edited by AJIBODE, I.A. JOURNAL.pdf Download (756kB)

Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 disease has brought a lot of panic to the world. The number of deaths associated with COVID-19 greatly exceeds the other two corona viruses tagged severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus-SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome corona virus- MERS-CoV and the outbreak is still ongoing, which posed a huge threat to the global public health and mortality rate. Recent works have explored different modelling techniques including the popular box jenking technique, however, none of the modelling techniques was able to compare the predictive ability of the models. Thus, this paper compared the predictive ability of ARIMA and ARIMAX at predicting death due to COVID-19 in Nigeria. Data were extracted from the repository website of NCDC for 43 weeks on the number of confirmed cases and number of deaths. The original data was made stationary by differencing and appropriate models were developed. ARIMA (1,1,1,) and ARIMAX (1,1,1) were found to be the best model orders that correctly predict death due to COVID-19. However, it was discovered that ARIMAX (1,1,1) outperformed ARIMA (1,1,1,) based on its lowest MAE and RMSE of 5.9774 and 8.538211 respectively.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions:	Faculty of Engineering, Science and Mathematics > School of Mathematics
Depositing User:	Mr. Bolanle Yisau I.
Date Deposited:	31 May 2021 15:01
Last Modified:	31 May 2021 15:01
URI:	http://eprints.federalpolyilaro.edu.ng/id/eprint/1555

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