Adeboye, Nurain Olawale and Ogunnusi, O.N (2019) On Fractional Time Domain Modelingof Nigerian Monthly Rainfall Statistics. In: 4th National Development Conference of The School of Pure and Applied Science, 2nd – 5th December, 2019, The Federal Polytechnic Ilaro, Ogun State.
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Abstract
That rainfall contributes substantially to the economic sustenance of Nigeria is an understatement. To help government in the continuous provision of necessary agricultural policies needful to sustain sufficient food production, there is a need to build an appropriate time domain model which can be used to forecast the future rate of monthly rainfall. As a result of this, autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model was employed to model the sourced rainfall data to take care of the fractional nature of seasonal rainfalls. It was discovered that the data was not stationary and stationarity was achieved through 1st order differencing. The long lasting autocorrelation function of the data showed the presence of long memory structure, and The ACF and PACF of the differenced data suggested possible models for selection. Among the several fitted models, ARFIMA (1, 2, 3) appeared to be the best based on its minimum AIC, BICand MSE values. The model was used for 2 years monthly forecast and it was observed that there is going to be a slow and steady increase in the volume ofrainfall within the context of this research data.
| Item Type: | Conference or Workshop Item (Paper) |
|---|---|
| Subjects: | Q Science > Q Science (General) Q Science > QA Mathematics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Engineering, Science and Mathematics > School of Mathematics |
| Depositing User: | Mr Taiwo Egbeyemi |
| Date Deposited: | 13 Jul 2020 11:41 |
| Last Modified: | 13 Jul 2020 11:41 |
| URI: | http://eprints.federalpolyilaro.edu.ng/id/eprint/1011 |
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